Deep thinking under the hottest electrolytic alumi

Deep thinking under the electrolytic aluminum plate

the main axis of the supply and reform of electrolytic aluminum is legalization and marketization. It is impossible that the illegal production capacity that should be shut down will not be shut down when the price rises, which makes the manufacturers that have been shut down embarrassed, and how does this reflect the seriousness of the policy

for supply reform, we may be falling into the myth of collective populism and dogmatic liberalism, especially after the stock market crash. But let's recall that in the past high-speed development of China, the upstream overdraw the environment and resources, subsidized the domestic manufacturing industry, made it obtain cheap costs and rapidly expanded global market share, and even connived at the development of low added value in the middle and lower reaches. With China's Lewis inflection point has passed, the demographic dividend has passed, and the previous cost advantage is only overdraft environment and resources. If we still fall into the curse of such resources, the transformation of economic structure will be empty talk

at present, we make the upstream profit repair through supply reform, so that it covers the cost of environmental protection and resources that should be paid by turning the conditioner to the best position, and give pressure to the transformation and upgrading of the middle and lower reaches, and encourage high value-added enterprises to become bigger and stronger; Let the global price center rise, moderately encourage overseas expansion, transfer our environmental protection pressure and resource pressure, and encourage the upgrading of the structure of the middle and lower reaches, so as to stop relying on the sale of resources. We don't need to deliberately expand upstream production capacity anymore. China's electrolytic aluminum supply now accounts for 60% of the world, power consumption accounts for 7.5% of the national power generation, and bauxite's external dependence is 55%. Do you want more? If the production capacity further uncontrolled growth, the next ring interface mild pressure, trade friction, bauxite by foreign neck, the gain is not worth the loss

of course, the overcorrection of policy effect should be vigilant and corrected in time, which is also the core variable of recent expected fluctuations

about the confusion of shutting down advanced production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, we want to say, how can advanced production capacity be defined only by the model of electrolytic cell? It should be understood from the perspective of environmental protection, resources and fair competition in the development of the whole industry. If a certain illegal production capacity in Shandong is not closed, and it is connived to rely on the excess profits of self-contained power that can only survive in Shandong to further expand without 29 ~ 82hr30t sequence, the result of industry convergence is that all electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is dead, and Shandong with independent excess profits will cover its own power plants and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the related atmosphere, alumina red mud, and fluoride will affect the environment in North China, Environmental protection and inclined plane impact testing machine imitate the way that products resist impact damage in the actual environment. What about industry health

the real advanced production capacity of electrolytic aluminum can not only be that the electrolytic cell is 600 kiloampere, but more importantly, it is resource matching, low energy cost, environmental protection and energy conservation. It is to really seek cheap coal resources, environmental carrying capacity and employment in the northwest, and high-quality bauxite resources, clean hydropower, environmental carrying capacity and employment in the southwest! Instead of relying on the relative excess profits brought by the isolated operation left over by history, which is only applicable in a corner

the adjustment after the short-term surge is normal, but we are still firmly optimistic about the systematic investment value of electrolytic aluminum supply and transformation

the surge in the early stage is mainly the main upsurge of the first wave of policy expectations. We believe that the plate revaluation driven by fundamentals is bound to come. Considering that the central spot check ended on September 15, the shutdown of illegal production capacity must be in August, and will be strictly implemented in the process of the central spot check. In September, we will probably see the monthly output reduction and inventory decline. Coupled with environmental protection verification and inventory replenishment in peak seasons, the relevant production capacity shutdown and environmental protection production restriction are still expected to exceed market expectations, and prices still have strong upward mobility

what is advanced production capacity? As long as it conforms to the development law of the electrolytic aluminum industry, has good regional industrial allocation, has resource and cost advantages in alumina and electricity, and is legal, compliant, energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises, whether state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, it is advanced production capacity. As a consumer metal, electrolytic aluminum has the ability of continuous production capacity expansion with an annual demand growth rate of more than 6%, This also makes its valuation systematically higher than that of the coal and steel sector, which has lacked growth

the really valuable seller research in China is not to broadcast good news after the limit, to harvest the cheap pursuit of the holders, and to encourage the herd effect of the people who do not know the truth, but to truly analyze the crux of the industry, the gains and losses of policies and the development trend, and guide the flow of financial resources to complete the market-oriented resource allocation. Rational thinking is the pass for the development of the seller, and the daily limit broadcast is the epitaph of chasing up and killing down